First, there are two notes:
- I will try my best to make this a diary that boosts neither candidate. If it doesn't work, whatever.
- I live in Japan, so by the time Ohio and Texas were called, I was in class, teaching English. I wasn't here for the obvious, constant sniping that may have taken place on DK, DU or MyDD, so I haven't had a moment yet to get too emotional.
But as I read the early blogs, my initial reaction to some of the buzz is this: I'm not sure an Obama-Clinton ticket (or the other way around) will beat McCain. A unity ticket is a really bad idea.
First, let's start with McCain. If anyone thinks that McCain will be a cakewalk in the general, think again. All Presidential candidates, after a year of being in the media spotlight and a week of convention coverage leading to the pre-balloon acceptance speech, have a respectable floor of support to be viable nationwide. Most times, I'd say 40% and that the battle is for the last 20% of the country's electorate. If you want to go with 35%, fine.
Then add this to the list:
- McCain has always, ALWAYS been the Republican that left-of-center Democrats loathe the least, and just might vote for if push came to shove. (note that this comes before any effective smears the Democrats can make stick in the fall, but the chances of this has always been tenuous at best)
- Republicans WILL hold their noses on Election Day. They have a Global WOT (tm) that needs fighting. Everywhere but Afghanistan, but that's not the point. You can't have a pacifist appeaser (read as: Democrat) in the White House if you don't want to be nuked by some radioactive vending machine at the Super Bowl. <-- I have a really bad movie collection</p>
- No one knows who his running mate is, but you can be sure he'll cause problems for a unity ticket (more below).
Now, let's look at political reality in the Democratic wing of American politics. While I don't agree wholly with Taegan Goddard about the lack of power behind the argument over delegate math, but he does say this (emphasis mine):
Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama will win the Democratic primary because they made the math work for them. Pretending the nomination battle is like a precise mathematical formula ignores the messy political realities. As we noted yesterday, the nomination will be won through old-fashioned arm twisting and political persuasion.
Somewhere down the line, between now and Denver, the eventual-presumptive Democratic nominee will make deals with others to garner the necessary support. That's fine, that's politics. But the worst thing that could happen is if one of the two remaining candidates makes a deal with the other, resulting in one of the two:
Clinton-Obama
Obama-Clinton
It just might be a necessary reality. Says Craig Crawford:
If Clinton or Obama cannot find some miraculous way to lock down a nominating majority in the remaining primaries and caucuses, look for undecided super delegates to opt for the easiest way out and urge them to run together for the November election.
Why is this bad? A number of reasons:
- Compromise is sometimes good, but compromise in this case, on the national stage to decide who is the Presidential candidate and who is the Vice Presidential candidate, suggests the compromise of principles and integrity. Clinton can't bring Obama on board her train: how can someone she believes is untested and inexperienced for the White House take the reins in the event something God-awful ever happens to her? Co-opting Clinton into the Obama movement doesn't work either: how can someone who is so completely corrupted by Washington and its "win at any cost" politics be part of a hopeful movement for change? Whatever the ticket, a mixed message is what a Democratic campaign will project.
- As we said about McCain, we don't know who his running mate is. But rest assured, he will be the attack dog that lets loose against the Democratic ticket. What better target than a campaign whose mixed messages are akin to Kerry's flip-flopping, contrasted with the sure steadiness (a steadiness of failure, but still steady nonetheless) that a McCain administration would ensure for the next four years? You can vote for the free-for-all on the Democratic side, or you can go with a sure choice. A choice that may be bad, but one that you at least know is coming.
- If you even sensed the tension between Kerry and Edwards four years ago, you know Clinton and Obama will have it in for each other this year. Won't it be so much fun to see them put up a facade of trying to work together in the general? And what will happen if the tension actually makes the press? Twelve hours later, guaranteed, find McCain at a press conference somewhere, calling for unity in the American electorate behind a McCain administration, contrast with the divided ranks in the Democratic Party.
- Neither possible ticket will seem genuine to the American voters, who will view the unity campaign as some sort of cynical political tactic to have cake and eat it too. After such a vibrant, exciting and suspensful primary campaign, come see the contrived, politically-motivated, self-serving general election campaign put forth by the unity ticket.
Rest assured, there is no such thing as reconciliation between Clinton and Obama UNTIL there is a presumptive nominee (by the way, this means that everyone should please stop talking as if we should get together behind a candidate because in-party reconciliation is inevitable; there is a legitimate fissure in the party, and only a decisive win will close it). But reconciliation in the form of a Vice Presidential spot on the ticket for the second-place finisher, whoever that may be, will be seen as a sham. It is disingenuous, it is insincere, and given the prospects Democrats have of taking back the White House while controlling both houses of Congress, it must not take place.