In a close election (and I don't know if it will be close or not), everything is going to matter. So let's look at the poll closing times this Election Day, and see if we can find some effects that the broadcast election coverage can bring to the general election. If nothing else, here's a single page of closing times for you to refer to (and for me to refer to, for I couldn't find a singular listing anywhere on the web).
I went to The Green Papers and had to click on each state link to get the closing times in each of the 51 non-territory general elections taking place across the country on November 4, 2008. After nearly going insane with repeated key strokes and fading eyesight, I created this spreadsheet, free for you to use and reference.
To the best of my knowledge, the times for network projections (because in some states, most polls close in one time zone and a few in another, not significant enough for the networks to wait an extra hour) in chronological, then alphabetical order, are:
- 6PM (ET): Indiana, Kentucky
- 7PM: Georgia, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia
- 7:30PM: North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia
- 8:00PM: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee
- 8:30PM: Arkansas
- 9:00PM: Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, Wyoming
- 10:00PM: Iowa, Montana, Nevada, North Dakota, Utah
- 11:00PM: California, Hawaii, Idaho, Oregon, Washington
- 12:00AM: Alaska
So what could happen on Election Day? A bit of a play-by-play follows:
- Evening network news goes to Eastern/Central air with McCain up 19-0: In 2000 and 2004, Bush jumped to the early lead with the two states that close the earliest. Kentucky, by the way, has voted with the electoral majority in every general election since 1964 (voting for Nixon in 1960). An early sweep for McCain likely will mean status quo in Election Day traffic to the polls, but should Obama sneak in and get Indiana (538.com pegs Obama's chances in IN at 32%; DCW considers an Indiana win as a 340+ EV victory), networks may consider McCain's night to be very short, causing a very small shift in either direction for last-minute voters in other states.
- NH, VT, VA by 7PM: Georgia and South Carolina are solid McCain. Vermont is solid Obama, but for Obama to make a splash entering 7PM, he will need to have more than 3 EVs on the board after seven states. A Democrat taking Virginia (a 59% chance according to 538, a 300+ EV victory according to DCW) for the first time since LBJ (says Wikipedia) would serve a blow to the McCain campaign. Should New Hampshire, McCain's faint but sole ray of sunshine in New England, turn red, however, a 59-3 margin may prove demoralizing for the Obama campaign until 8PM, with North Carolina and West Virginia set to go red at the bottom of the hour, unless...
- Ohio may set the tone for Obama entering Eastern prime time: Ohio may fall into Democratic hands before Nevada, Florida and Virginia do, and Obama may not even need Ohio to win according to DCW, but a Republican hasn't won the White House without Ohio. Period, end of sentence. Besides the momentum bounce for Obama, an early call from the networks, even with voters still in line in Ohio, may see Obama volunteers quickly cross the border into western Pennsylvania for the final hour before polls close there.
- 184 EVs at 8PM: Technically, 8PM is the earliest a candidate can win the White House, but that person would need to sweep every state and the District. Anyways...75 EVs will solidly go to Obama, 44 will go to McCain. The big three (Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania, 65 EVs) all close at the same time. For Obama's benefit, Michigan and Pennsylvania better close early while Florida goes to midnight. My gut says Florida becomes red again, but the longer it goes uncalled, the less momentum McCain has as the night goes on. Arkansas goes red at the bottom of the hour, no contest.
- Arizona (finally) comes in during the second rush: At 9PM, as many as 139 EVs could be decided. If, between today and Election Day, McCain ends up spending money in his home state, the first 292 EVs may inform how Arizona voters at the last minute decide when they finally go to the polls. Should it ever get out in early prime time that McCain's campaign is done, Obama has the chance of covering the spread with a strong rush of motivated voters who have been watching television before going to vote. Otherwise, Obama still gets a good share of the hour's tally, with Minnesota, New York and Wisconsin sending 51 Obama electors to the College, more if...
- Colorado goes blue: DCW says Colorado is the state that puts Obama over the top in terms of polling numbers. Should it flip Democratic, Obama will get at least half of the hour's share.
- Nevada at 10PM: Iowa should be an early call for Obama. Nevada is not necessarily essential unless a Colorado or New Hampshire falls into Republican hands, but a close election may see a rush of voters in Nevada at the last minute.
- Obama's main weapons along the West Coast: California, Hawaii, Oregon and Washington all close at 11PM (as does Idaho, which is solid McCain). There have been a FEW murmurs about McCain inching towards the margin of error in the Pacific Northwest; a close election all night long will see increased voter activity in the evening in Oregon and Washington. Otherwise, California with one of either OR or WA could be enough to put Obama past 270. Alaska at midnight, by the way, will go solid red thanks to Palin (my first and only reference to that fourth, irrelevant candidate over there).
No one really knows the influence that broadcast election coverage will have this time around, as both campaigns (well, the Obama campaign, at least) have been making big pushes for early voting over the next six weeks, and those votes won't change on Election Night. However, if we see the third straight 50%+1 election for President, the ground game in the very last hours of the campaign will become even more important, and the campaign that can best respond at a moment's notice to early election returns will best benefit in the later polls, and win the White House.